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FXUS07 KWBC 282000
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2026
THE UPDATED MARCH 2026 OUTLOOK IS ADJUSTED AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS TIME SCALES FROM THE SHORT-RANGE TO THE SUBSEASONAL-RANGE
AS WELL AS THE LATEST STATUS OF THE MJO AND CONDITIONS IN THE STRATOSPHERE. THE
MOST CURRENT LAND SURFACE STATES SUCH AS SOIL MOISTURE AND SNOWPACK ALSO PLAYED
A ROLE IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK.
THE LATEST INSPECTION OF THE MJO STRENGTH AND PHASE AND MODEL FORECASTS
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. ANOMALOUS TROPICAL CONVECTION AND
WIND FIELDS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY OTHER
COHERENT SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY OTHER THAN THE MJO (I.E., ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN
AND EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVES) AS WELL AS A SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT MODE. IN
ADDITION, MODEL FORECASTS OF THE RMM INDEX VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM MORE
ORGANIZED EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND MODERATE AMPLITUDE FOR THE NCEP MODELS (I.E.
CFS, GEFS) TO WEAKER LESS ORGANIZED PREDICTIONS FROM ECMWF. THE SIGNALS FROM
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH ARE CONSISTENT AND
STRONG FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S., IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER ANY TELECONNECTION FROM THE TROPICS, IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, WOULD HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE MONTH AND SO THE EVENTUAL
OBSERVED MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE AND TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (SSW) IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF IN EARLY MARCH, IT IS PREDICTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND CURRENT FORECASTS
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS OF POLAR CAP 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DO NOT STRONGLY
INDICATE A CONNECTION TO THE TROPOSPHERE AT THIS TIME. CONSISTENT WITH THIS ARE
FORECASTS OF A +AO INDEX OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF SEVERE AND
EXTREME DROUGHT IN THE LOWER CONUS CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DEGREE TO PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. REMAINING SNOWPACK IN SOME AREAS (UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN AND THE NORTHEAST) INCREASE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AND TEMPER ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS AS DOES A FEW DAYS
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE MONTH. A CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE
FORECAST BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS MID-MONTH
OUTLOOK WITH THE CONTINUED MAIN MESSAGE BEING FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. FORECAST COVERAGE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INCREASED ACROSS SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SMALL AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE REMOVED AND A REDUCTION IN THE ODDS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS
APPLIED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. DUE TO FAVORED TROUGHING AT TIMES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. THE HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD NOW FOCUSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
ROBUST TROUGHING, LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND SO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MEAN FLOW
FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST
IS MAINLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
FOR PRECIPITATION, THE UPDATED OUTLOOK ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT - TO FIRST ORDER
- WITH THE PREVIOUS MID-MONTH OUTLOOK. MEDIUM- AND EXTENDED-RANGE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES AND
COVERAGE FOR THE PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REGION IN
THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE REGION IS
INCREASED TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. HIGH ODDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND MOST OF FLORIDA, WHILE ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN REDUCED
IN COVERAGE IN THE UPDATE.
THE ALASKA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE. EQUAL CHANCES (EC)
FOR EITHER OF THE THREE CATEGORIES IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE- (BELOW-) NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND AN AREA IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE, RESPECTIVELY.
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****** PREVIOUS MID-MONTH DISCUSSION ******
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A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICA REGION JUST
PRIOR TO THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND PENETRATIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
(I.E. STRONG -AO PROJECTION) DOMINATED THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY AND EARLY
FEBRUARY. THE STRONG BLOCK IMPACTING THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC-GREENLAND REGION,
ETC. DISSIPATED AND ALLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND AN EASING OF THE STRONG
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN MID FEBRUARY, TROUGHING REPLACED A
PERSISTENT RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A MUCH MORE STORMY, ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUATION OF A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ENTERING EARLY MARCH WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFTED STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS TO FIRST ORDER - CONSISTENT WITH A +AO AND -PNA - QUITE
OPPOSITE OF WHAT WAS OBSERVED IN EARLY-MID FEBRUARY. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
DEPARTURES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD SHIFTED WESTERLIES AND MORE AIR OF
PACIFIC, MARITIME ORIGIN ENTERING THE CONUS SUPPORTS PRIMARILY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.S. AS FORECAST BY ECMWF, GEFS AND JMA
SUBSEASONAL MODEL GUIDANCE INTO MID-MARCH.
THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AND INTO EARLY MARCH IS REASONABLY
CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS - RIDGING/BLOCKING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR
THE DATE LINE AND TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
- AS ANOMALOUS ENHANCED CONVECTION REMAINS OBSERVED NEAR INDONESIA. THE MJO HAS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT COHERENT IN RECENT WEEKS AS OTHER MODES OF COHERENT TROPICAL
SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY HAVE FOCUSED THE ANOMALOUS ENHANCED CONVECTION AT THE
MARITIME CONTINENT. MODEL RMM FORECASTS ARE MIXED WITH ANY MJO STRENGTHENING
AND ORGANIZED EASTWARD PROPAGATION. THE ECMWF FORECAST IS FOR NO CLEAR
ORGANIZED SIGNAL, WHILE THE GEFS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL EASTWARD PROPAGATION
BUT WITH LARGE FORECAST SPREAD. THE STATE OF THE MJO WILL BE REVIEWED PRIOR TO
THE END OF THE MONTH UPDATE. OTHER FACTORS CONSIDERED IN PREPARATION OF THE
OUTLOOK ARE POTENTIAL REMAINING SNOWPACK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, EXTENSIVE
SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE SNOW DROUGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ABOVE CLIMATE FACTORS AND EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHERN FAR WEST, SOUTHWEST, MOST OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE HIGHEST
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND TOOLS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LESS FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHARP DEMARCATION IN THE FORECAST ANOMALOUS HEIGHT PATTERN IN
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MAY ALLOW COLDER AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
AND SO A NARROW REGION OF SLIGHTLY FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. EQUAL-CHANCES (EC)
FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME TROUGHING AND SNOWPACK INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
STRONG RIDGING FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE WEST OF ALASKA SUPPORTS AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE WITH STRONG ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND SO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. FOR NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, TRENDS IN BELOW-NORMAL SEA ICE COVERAGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
NEAR COAST SSTS KEEP THESE AREAS EC FOR THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK, ALTHOUGH THIS
FORCING IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS FEBRUARY THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
FOR PRECIPITATION, A NORTHWARD SHIFTED STORM TRACK ENTERING MARCH AS INDICATED
BY EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH IN THE COMING WEEK AND ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS AREA MEETS ANOTHER REGION OF
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
CONSISTENT WITH RESIDUAL LA NINA AND POTENTIAL MJO INFLUENCED PRECIPITATION,
ALONG WITH FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONUS.
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR APR ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU MAR 19 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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