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FXUS06 KWBC 282001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT FEBRUARY 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 10 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. STRONG ANOMALOUS
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE ENCOMPASSING ALASKA, NORTHERN
CANADA, AND GREENLAND. ANOMALOUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO
THE INTERIOR WEST. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII IN
BETWEEN ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO ITS NORTHEAST AND ANOMALOUS TROUGHING TO ITS
NORTHWEST.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA AS AN ANOMALOUS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF LEADS TO AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
WESTWARD TO THE ROCKIES AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WHERE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST ROBUST. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST OFFSHORE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
FORECAST OVER THE MAINLAND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST, FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY BEHIND THE PREDICTED
TROUGH, FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH FORECAST TO ITS
NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 14 2026
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DURING
WEEK-2, SIMILAR TO THE PRECEDING 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED WITH A MEAN POSITION FORECAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALOUS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED MEAN
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH
ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND
ADJACENT AREAS. A WEAKENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. MODEST HEIGHT RISES ARE NOTED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, WITH NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS NOW FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, IN BETWEEN A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IN ITS
WAKE, PREDICTED HEIGHT RISES LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING.
HOWEVER, DUE TO PREDICTED HEIGHT RISES, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PERSISTENCE AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WHERE AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF PREDICTED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR COASTAL NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII,
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED EXPANSIVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060224 - 19890301 - 20170302 - 19900212 - 19960218
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890228 - 20060224 - 20090227 - 19890305 - 20170301
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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