797
FXUS06 KWBC 012002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN MARCH 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
500-HPA FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS). BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE ENCOMPASSING ALASKA, NORTHERN CANADA, AND
GREENLAND. ANOMALOUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. A SEPARATE TROUGH IS NOTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTERED NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII IN
BETWEEN ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO ITS NORTHEAST AND ANOMALOUS TROUGHING TO ITS
NORTHWEST.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST, NORTHWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST, APPALACHIANS, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND
MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WEST, PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA AS AN ANOMALOUS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. PREDICTED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE GULF LEADS TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS WESTWARD TO THE ROCKIES AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF
IS EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING
FORECAST OFFSHORE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
MAINLAND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTH
COAST, FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH, FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH FORECAST TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2026
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DURING
WEEK-2, AND DEPICTS A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF MOST OF THE MAIN FEATURES
ILLUSTRATED IN THE PRECEDING 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ANOMALOUS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE
ASSOCIATED MEAN POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS PREDICTED TO MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS. A WEAKENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII, IN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR PARTS OF THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST,
PLAINS, AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ENHANCED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE STRONGEST. FARTHER TO THE WEST, PREDICTED HEIGHT RISES LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF ARIZONA, NEVADA, AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PERSISTENCE AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES, SOUTHEAST, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE
AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND VICINITY AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A WEAKENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A TILT TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR COASTAL NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO
PREDICTED OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED EXPANSIVE
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170302 - 20070315 - 19900212 - 20170210 - 20060223
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890228 - 20060224 - 20170301 - 19960218 - 20110213
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page