476
FXUS02 KWBC 020815
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAR 05 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 09 2026
..EMERGING EAST-CENTRAL U.S. HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN LATE WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALOFT ARE NOW MUCH BETTER CLUSTERED OVERALL FOR
LATER THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF SMALL SCALE VARIANCES
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW CYCLES, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER, THE EJECTION TIMING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM BAJA CLOSED LOW
DOES REMAIN VARIED IN GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF OFFER THE SLOWEST MODEL
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND EVEN FASTER
CANADIAN. PREFER A SOLUTION ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE
GIVEN NATURE OF SEPARTED CLOSED LOWS. THE EC-AIFS SEEMS REASONABLE
IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, OTHERWISE
PREFER WELL CLUSTERED GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET/EC-AIFS BLEND
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PIVOTING MORE TOWARD THE GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND EC-AIFS AS UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO LONEER TIME
FRAMES. THIS PLAN MAINTAINS GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY IN LINE
WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND FAVORABLE NEWER 00 UTC
GUIDANCE CYCLE TRENDS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NATION THIS WEEK. A
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EJECT
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THEN NORTHEAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND POOLING
MOISTURE MAY FUEL AREAS OF MODERATE RAINS. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
INTO COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN
TIER AS DRIVEN BY MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGIES SHOULD
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SNOW FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN ICE/FREEZING RAIN TRANSITION ZONE TO MONITOR.
HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF THREATS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD RE-EMERGE FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.
RUNOFF THREATS MAY BUILD WITH EACH ROUND OF RAIN GIVEN A REPEATING
PATTERN WITH SOME CELL TRAINING POTENTIAL. ACCORDINGLY, INTRODUCED
A WPC DAY 5/FRIDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MARGINAL THREAT AREA
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVEN
WAVY FRONTAL TRANSLATION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO LEAD INTO A
PROTRACTED WET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO ALSO MONITOR.
MEANWHILE UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SHARPLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEST INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND BRING
UNSETTLED AND COOLING FLOW ALONG WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS OUT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NORTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN/ROCKIES TO INCLUDE TERRAIN ENHANCED
SNOWS. WHILE RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS DIG AN INCREASING SOUTHERN
STREAM DETACHED UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO BAJA
NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY ALSO
WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST TO RENEW MODERATE PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUED NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRANSLATION INTO
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AIRMASS INTRUSIONS TO INTERACT WITH THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANDING SOUTHERN STREAM
PRECIPITATION AREA.
IN THIS PATTERN, AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING AND
SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING WILL BUILD AND LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TO THE SOUTH OF LEAD
COLD DAMNED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST LATE
THIS WEEK MODERATES AND LOSES SOUTHWARD INFLUENCE.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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