086
FXUS01 KWBC 021901
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST MON MAR 02 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 03 2026 - 00Z THU MAR 05 2026
...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE MOVING IN
THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...
...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING MIDWEEK...
...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AS A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO REORGANIZE ITSELF ON TUESDAY,
IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH MORE TAKING
EFFECT ON TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC, EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THESE REGIONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN TO THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
WILL THEN FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY EVENING. A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING THE SYSTEM,
PUSHING IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONCURRENTLY BRING IN WARM
GULF AIR INTO THIS REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING, PROVIDING
A NOTABLE INFLUX OF MOISTURE, WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK ON THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY
IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO THREAT.
MEANWHILE, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE PARTICULARLY
WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH RECORD HIGH DAILY TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST, AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE ONGOING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE LATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WARM-UP, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SHOULD AID IN
MELTING ANY STUBBORN SNOWPACK THAT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
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