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FXUS06 KWBC 022054
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON MARCH 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 12 2026
MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FOR THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD FROM THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE (ECENS), CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CNENS), AND GEFS MEANS, ALONG WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN, GENERALLY AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM ALASKA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF CANADA WITH
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS STATES (CONUS).
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED TO BOTH THE WEST AND THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH, CENTERED OVER THE EASTERNNORTH PACIFIC AND
THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA. POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR THE CENTER OF BOTH RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
+21 DM WHILE 500-HPA HEIGHTS 15 DM OR MORE BELOW NORMAL ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR
AND WEST OF HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA, WITH THE GREATEST 5-DAY AVERAGE
ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO EXCEED +30 DM. OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 6 (MAR 8) INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY DAY 10 (MAR 12). THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE, A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF HAWAII WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FARTHER EAST. ACROSS
ALASKA, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED TO REBOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE WHILE BELOW-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MAINTAINED FARTHER
EAST.
RAW AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ALL DEPICT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A LARGE PART OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. RAW DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT SHOWS TEMPERATURES
REACHING 20 TO NEARLY 30 DEG. F ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FARTHER WEST, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LESS CLEAR. THE REFORECAST OUTPUT
FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CNENS MEANS ALL FAVOR UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH
ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED
OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE CHANCES FOR WARMTH ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST, AND BOTH THE ANALOGS AND TELECONNECTIONS LEAN TOWARD NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FORECAST
IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS, INDICATING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LEADING TO A FORECAST HEAVILY FAVORING COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
AREAS OF THE CONUS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SLOW-MOVING, AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAVE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WARM, MOIST GULF AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ADJACENT OHIO
VALLEY PLACES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION OVER THIS REGION,
WHERE LIKELIHOODS EXCEED 60 PERCENT. FARTHER WEST, DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN, MOST OF CALIFORNIA, AND ADJACENT OREGON WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN IN ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MARGINALLY FAVORED NEAR A DEVELOPING SURFACE STORM SYSTEM
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND CLOSER TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA. MEANWHILE, ODDS SIGNIFICANTLY FAVOR WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH BEING LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE MEAN PATTERN AND THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF
FEATURES, TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE RAW AND
STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DERIVED FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 16 2026
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING
WEEK-2. THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD-PROGRESSING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE EAST COAST. A BROADER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SURPLUS
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEK-2, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLDER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE
INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, INCREASING ODDS FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FARTHER WEST, THE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE-TROUGH DIPOLE FROM NEAR SIBERIA
ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST, KEEPING WESTERN ALASKA IN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG RIDGE NEAR
SIBERIA, WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD THE STRONG
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
MUCH OF THIS AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL, MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PERIOD HAVE A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SEABOARD. FARTHER WEST, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES WESTWARD AS THE NORTH
PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CALIFORNIA. OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2, SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR CONTINUED
SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA WHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE CLOSEST TO THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SLOWLY-ADVANCING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TOPS 50 PERCENT IN A SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, CHANCES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION EXCEED 40 PERCENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST ESTABLISHES EASTWARD, UPSLOPING WINDS WHICH SHOULD ABET
INCREASED PRECIPITATION. FARTHER WEST, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXPAND SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD, REACHING
NORTHWARD TO THE WASHINGTON BORDER AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MID-LEVEL PATTERN
MARGINALLY FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND
AND ABOVE-NORMAL TOTALS FARTHER EAST, WHILE HAWAII REMAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 21% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 47% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS ON THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN, TEMPERED BY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE END OF WEEK-2, IN ADDITION TO SOME CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE RAW
AND STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE
ENSEMBLES.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20170210 - 20170302 - 19900212 - 20220213
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170302 - 20070315 - 20060224 - 20110212 - 19890301
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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