355
FXUS01 KWBC 030739
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 03 2026 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2026
...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST TODAY...
...POTENT COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND ROCKIES BY
MIDWEEK, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NATION THIS WEEK, WITH RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MANY LOCATIONS BETWEEN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDER OVER THE
REGION. ONLY SOME OF THIS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
CONTAIN A WINTRY MIX AS THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS
WARMER AND MORE SPRINGLIKE. HOWEVER, LIGHT SLEET, FREEZING RAIN,
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT IN MAGNITUDE, BUT
STILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL. ELSEWHERE ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
REPEATING NATURE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND CLASH WITH WARM HUMID AIR LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT COULD BE SEVERE FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE OZARKS,
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM READY TO ENTER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
FIRST, THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO CROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. MIDWEEK AS A POTENT FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. THIS COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY MORNING AND REACHING
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES SPANNING FROM THE CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EVEN THOUGH THE WEST EXPERIENCES A COOLDOWN THROUGH MIDWEEK, MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE BY THURSDAY
AS WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE 70S SPAN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS INTO THE 80S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WHICH COULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS.
THIS RECORD WARMTH AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 80S
WILL EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS WELL. MEANWHILE,
THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
SNELL
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