733
FXCA20 KWBC 031702
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1202 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 MARCH 2026 AT 1700 UTC:
IN THE TROPICAL REGION, SEASONAL DRYNESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OVER THE ENTIRE REGION, THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS CURRENTLY IN A POTENT CONVERGENT
PHASE THAT WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED AND SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, GENERALIZED ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW
PERTURBATIONS REMAINS, EXTENDING FROM MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, AND
INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY. IN THE MID LEVELS, A
DISORGANIZED RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND TRADE
WIND CAPS OVER THE REGION FURTHER LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY, THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ADVECTING
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION, WITH THE PRESENCE A FEW MOIST PLUMES AND
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS, WILL FAVOR ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
EXPECT LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 15-20MM OVER THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY, WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN, WHERE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 50MM WILL PROPAGATE INTO NORTH
HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA, FAVORING
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION, LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ARE EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY, THE PROPAGATING LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA, WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON THURSDAY, A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE UNITED STATES IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, ACTIVATING
THE NORTH AMERICAN LLJ FROM THE YUCATAN, ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. WITH THIS IN
PLACE, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SECTOR OF MEXICO, FAVORING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. IN THE MID-LEVELS,
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVEL OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, FUELING THE
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE REGION. EXPECT CENTRAL MEXICO TO SEE MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM, WITH A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, A RIDGING PATTERN IS DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST, FAVORING A WEAK TROUGH OVER COLOMBIA, WITH ITS BASE
ENTERING NORTH ECUADOR BY TUESDAY EVENING. IN THE PACIFIC COASTS
OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST PERU, MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
REGION. TO THE EAST, THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE GUIANAS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON TUESDAY, FAVORING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT MOIST PLUME APPROACHES THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GUIANAS AND NORTH BRASIL, BRINGING WITH
IT ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON TUESDAY,
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM WEST COLOMBIA, INTO
ECUADOR, AND THE TUMBES REGION OF PERU. ON WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST COLOMBIA
THROUGH NORTH PERU, AS WELL AS IN FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA-BRASIL.
BY THURSDAY, GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA THROUGH NORTH PERU, WHILE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN EAST FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA-BRASIL
OF MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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