915
FXUS06 KWBC 032002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE MARCH 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 13 2026
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. INITIALLY, RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TIED TO POSITIVE PHASES OF
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (+AO) AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (+NAO). HOWEVER,
TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND A SUBSEQUENT PATTERN TRANSITION. AS A RESULT, BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH LARGER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UPSTREAM, MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER THE BERING SEA, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, ALONG WITH THE ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ALTHOUGH RISING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD OVER THESE AREAS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 20
DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, TIED TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST, BRINGING A LARGE TEMPERATURE DROP
AND A RETURN TO RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. THE 0Z AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE EAST BY DAY-10 (MAR 13),
WHILE THE 0Z GEFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION. WHILE A PATTERN
TRANSITION APPEARS LIKELY, THE LARGE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD FAVOR INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
ELEVATED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA TIED TO RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ENHANCED
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
EXCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST TIED TO TROUGHING AND A POTENT COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT) ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS. THE
UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A VERY BROAD AREA OF THE
EAST HAVING PERIOD MEAN PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF OVER AN INCH, WITH UPWARDS OF
1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AND
CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. INCREASED RETURN
FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES
FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER HAWAII
DUE TO TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SUPPORTED BY STRONG SIGNALS IN
THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE FEATURES,
OFFSET BY A TRANSITIONING TEMPERATURE PATTERN OVER THE EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 17 2026
THE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
EXCEPT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LONGWAVE FEATURES. THE PROGRESSION
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH TOWARD HUDSON BAY (-180 METERS IN THE WEEK-2
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND) FAVORS A CONTINUED EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF POSITIVE
500-HPA ANOMALIES. WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD AS A WHOLE ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND
NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
OVER THE BERING SEA, WITH ASSOCIATED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST ACROSS THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AND OVER WESTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING
REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED OVER HAWAII.
DURING WEEK-2, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE LIKELY
FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE ANALOG
AND TELECONNECTION TOOLS SUPPORT A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WARMER GEFS AND COLDER ECMWF/CANADIAN
FAVOR A BROADER AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGING OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC AND AN INLAND EXTENSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA,
ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR WEEK-2 IS MAINLY TIED TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO MID-MARCH, AND MORE COLD AIR MAY BE AVAILABLE TO RESULT IN WINTRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GIVEN RIDGING
REMAINING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND TROUGHING MOVING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE EAST. ACROSS ALASKA, SLIGHTLY BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN (NORTHEASTERN) AREAS DUE TO RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER THE
BERING SEA AND A WEAK TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ALASKA INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS A RESULT OF INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW. THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DECREASING SIGNALS LATER IN WEEK-2,
ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A RELATIVELY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE EAST.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20170211 - 19900222 - 20220314 - 20170302
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20170210 - 20170302 - 19910219 - 20220217
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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