974
FXUS02 KWBC 040755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 07 2026 - 12Z WED MAR 11 2026
...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK TO MONITOR...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REMAIN LOWER THE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE NATION THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES, BOLSTERING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DESPITE STANDARD SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM VARIANCES AND
SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT EJECTION TIMING OF THE
CLOSED BAJA LOW. EVEN SO, A COMPOSITE OF WELL CLUSTERED
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND THEN STILL
COMPATIBLE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AT LONGER
TIME FRAMES NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST BASIS IN
LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGLIGHTED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND
WARMING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TO FUEL A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH REPEAT FOCUS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS ENHANCED BY WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET. RUNOFF THREATS MAY BUILD WITH EACH ROUND
OF RAIN GIVEN A REPEATING PATTERN WITH CELL TRAINING POTENTIAL.
MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
FLOODING/RUNOFF ARE IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAY 4/SATURDAY AND DAY
5/SUNDAY WITH THE WET PERIOD TO EXTEND AND POTENTIALLY FLOURISH
NEXT WEEK. SPC IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
OVERTOP, NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PROGRESSING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER WILL OFFER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND
ENHANCED WINDS. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
GROWING STREAM PHASING LEADING TO EJECTION OF THE BAJA CLOSED LOW
AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT AND
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.. COLD AIR
INTRUSION DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME
SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF EMERGING PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.
THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH 80S REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID- ATLANTIC. DAILY RECORDS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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