322
FXUS01 KWBC 040800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST WED MAR 04 2026
VALID 12Z WED MAR 04 2026 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2026
...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...
...POTENT COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND ROCKIES BY
MIDWEEK, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...
...ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS WEEK, WITH SOME DAILY
RECORD HIGHS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
AN ACTIVE EARLY SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING (WEDNESDAY) WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND SERVE AS A RENEWED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN KANSAS, AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES ALONG
THE DRYLINE AHEAD OF AN EJECTING STORM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
ROCKIES.
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES. THE SIERRA NEVADA SHOULD LARGELY BE SPARED SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS, THOUGH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION, ELEVATED TO
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
MEANWHILE, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
HEADLINES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID-70S TO MID-80S.
THE WARMTH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO
VALLEY, WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED.
ONE NOTABLE CAVEAT INVOLVES A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PRESS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY MAY CREATE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY,
WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER.
THE BROADER NORTHEAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE, AS
LOW-TO MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO FULLY DISLODGE THE
ENTRENCHED COOL AIR MASS.
HAMRICK/PEREIRA
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