743
FXCA20 KWBC 041702
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1202 PM EST WED MAR 04 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 4 MARCH 2026 AT 1705 UTC:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE GAINING DEFINITION OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS EXIT REGION WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA FOR THURSDAY AND WILL PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS CUBA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REACH 38MM. BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CUBA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION. THE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND A
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY, THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A JET STREAK MAX WILL BE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS EXIT REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST REGION OF WESTERN CUBA
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STILL PRESIDE OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF CUBA, EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CUBA AS WELL. THE REGION
WILL BE SITUATED ON THE LOW LEVEL JETâ€S CYCLONIC SIDE (SOUTH
SIDE) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 -
40MM AND A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN IS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FOR FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARRIVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE
LATE EVENING. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THIS REGION. THUS, EXPECT TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 -
25MM FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA, THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA THAT WILL BE ARRIVING INTO
THE CONTINENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER LAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACT WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE TROUGH WILL
BE WEAKENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS HONDURAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE, WHICH WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
AREA WILL SEE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET
(CLLJ) WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EXPECT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION AS WELL ACROSS THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AND ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE PLUMES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT NEAR NORTHEAST BRASIL.
THE MOISTURE PLUMES WILL HELP SUSTAIN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ACROSS THE AMAZON DELTA. ALSO ANTICIPATE THE DIURNAL CYCLE
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO REINFORCE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. ALONG THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, EXPECT HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEED WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL CYCLE. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS ECUADOR WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA REGION, ANTICIPATE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO OCCUR DAILY, ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS
WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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