345
FXUS02 KWBC 041845
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 07 2026 - 12Z WED MAR 11 2026
...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK TO MONITOR...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHILE
SMALLER SCALE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST,
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF THE CLOSED BAJA LOW,
THE FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE NATION, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT, A
COMPOSITE OF WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTIC MODELS (00Z EC, 06Z GFS,
00Z CMC, 00Z UKMET, 00Z EC-AIFS) WITH INCREASING WEIGHT (UP TO 50%)
OF ENSEMBLE MEANS (00Z EPS, 06Z GEFS) WITH TIME PROVIDES A SOLID
FORECAST BASIS AND MAINTAINS WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND
WARMING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TO FUEL A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH REPEAT FOCUS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS ENHANCED BY WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND
FAVORABLE UPPER JET. RUNOFF THREATS MAY BUILD WITH EACH ROUND OF
RAIN GIVEN A REPEATING PATTERN WITH CELL TRAINING POTENTIAL.
MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
FLOODING/RUNOFF REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAY 4/SATURDAY AND DAY 5/SUNDAY
WITH THE WET PERIOD TO EXTEND AND POTENTIALLY FLOURISH NEXT WEEK.
SPC IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
OVER TOP, NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PROGRESSING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER WITH FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL OFFER
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND ENHANCED WINDS. MORE AMPLIFIED
NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL U.S. MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR GROWING STREAM PHASING, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE
EJECTION OF THE BAJA CLOSED LOW AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT AND NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION UP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF EMERGING PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.
THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE EAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH 80S REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC. DAILY RECORDS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD.
MILLER/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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