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FXUS06 KWBC 042001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED MARCH 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2026
AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TIED TO POSITIVE PHASES
OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (+AO) AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (+NAO). HOWEVER,
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A
SUBSEQUENT PATTERN TRANSITION. AS A RESULT, BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UPSTREAM, MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER THE BERING SEA, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THIS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, ALONG WITH THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ALTHOUGH RISING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD OVER THESE AREAS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEG F
ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST (MAR
10-11). THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, TIED TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST, BRINGING A LARGE TEMPERATURE DROP AND A RETURN
TO RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. WHILE A PATTERN TRANSITION APPEARS LIKELY, THE
LARGE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FAVOR INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. ELEVATED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA
TIED TO RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AS A RESULT OF TROUGHING AND A POTENT COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST SUPPORTED BY THE
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS. THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A VERY BROAD AREA OF THE EAST HAVING PERIOD MEAN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF OVER AN INCH, WITH UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO EXTEND BACK THROUGH THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIED TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT AND ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING AND CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS ALASKA TIED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
OVER HAWAII DUE TO TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SUPPORTED BY STRONG
SIGNALS IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE FEATURES,
OFFSET BY A PREDICTED RAPID TEMPERATURE TRANSITION OVER THE EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2026
THE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
EXCEPT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LONGWAVE FEATURES. THE 0Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MAINTAIN A MORE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WHILE
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN THE 0Z GEFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE PROGRESSION
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH TOWARD HUDSON BAY (-150 METERS IN THE WEEK-2
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND) FAVORS A CONTINUED EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF POSITIVE
500-HPA ANOMALIES. WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD AS A WHOLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST, THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN
THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS COMPARATIVELY FLATTER. ANOTHER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA, WITH ASSOCIATED
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING REMAINS FORECAST NEAR
HAWAII, WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST.
DURING WEEK-2, A LARGE DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL NORTHEAST.
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPANDING INTO MUCH OF THE EAST LATER IN WEEK-2, CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE GEFS TIED TO A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS, AND THE ANALOGS,
WHICH HAVE TRENDED WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC
AND AN INLAND EXTENSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WEST (EXCLUDING NORTHERN AREAS
CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER) INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA, ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION IS
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
WHILE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST DIMINISH EARLY
IN WEEK-2 TIED TO A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM, CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN
RIDGING NEAR THE REGION AND TROUGHING MOVING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA TIED TO RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS
SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20220315 - 19910222 - 20080302 - 19970216
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070317 - 19910219 - 20170211 - 19900222 - 20070312
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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