865
FXUS02 KWBC 050800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 08 2026 - 12Z THU MAR 12 2026
...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD NEXT WEEK IN A PATTERN
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY. NORMAL SMALLER SCALE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE VARIANCES REMAIN, BUT THERE REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF A
PROTRACTED PERIOD WITH HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE THREATS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AS
FUELED BY CHANNELED GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND UPPER JET LIFT
INTERACTION WITH WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND REPEAT ACTIVITY. THERE
HAVE BEEN RECENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF A MAIN
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED BAJA LOW THAT WOULD ADDITIONALLY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY WITH APPROACH. HOWEVER, LATEST 00 UTC MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION NOW WITH THE SLOWER/AMPLIFIED
TREND OF THE CANADIAN MODEL TO MATCH THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/EC-AIFS
WITH BRING THE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO BY NEXT MIDWEEK.
A COMPOSITE MODEL BLEND NOW OFFERS A GOOD LOWER 48 FORECAST BASIS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
IT GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT A WELL DEFINED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NATION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED INITIALLY BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND WARMING
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CHANNEL
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH REPEAT FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AS ENHANCED BY WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET.
RUNOFF THREATS MAY BUILD WITH EACH ROUND OF RAIN GIVEN A REPEATING
PATTERN WITH TRAINING POTENTIAL. MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR A THREAT
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FLOODING/RUNOFF ARE NOW IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DAY 4/SUNDAY AND DAY 5/MONDAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER TO EXTEND AND
FLOURISH INTO NEXT WEEK WITH EXPANSION THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL U.S. WITH EXPECTED BAJA CLOSED LOW
EJECTION. SPC IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE, NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PROGRESSING OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER IN BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
WILL OFFER PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES TO NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR GROWING STREAM PHASING WITH TIME,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE EJECTION OF THE BAJA CLOSED LOW AND THE
SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT AND
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES MAY
ALSO SUPPORT BROAD SNOWS ON THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF EMERGING PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.
THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE EAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH 80S REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC. DAILY RECORDS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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