519
FXCA20 KWBC 051519
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1018 AM EST THU MAR 05 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 5 MARCH 2026 AT 1520 UTC:
IN THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER CUBA ON THURSDAY. CUBA
WILL BE LOCATED ON ITS EXIT REGION, WHERE A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA.
MEANWHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING MORE WELL DEFINED FOR FRIDAY. THE
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY STEEPER LAPSE
RATES AND THUS ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CUBA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT MODERATE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FOR FRIDAY AND WILL YIELD MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS.
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WILL
SEE ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY, WEEK UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW 8 DEGREES CELSIUS, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE, AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO HISPANIOLA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A MOISTURE PLUME
THAT WILL CONTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF UP TO 44MM. THE
DIURNAL CYCLE WILL REINFORCE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES AS WELL.
THUS, EXPECT ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS HISPANIOLA, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS, EXPECT MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO
EASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION. THUS, EXPECT ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND IT WILL DEVELOP A
POSITIVE TILT WHERE ITS AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AND ITS ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND INTENSE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AMAZON DELTA.
AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING TO BE PRESENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR INTENSE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THOUGH THE ITCZ WILL
REMAIN OFF-SHORE, IT WILL START TO SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD
ALONGSIDE ITS MOISTURE PLUME. EXPECT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO
CONVERGE INTO THE BRASILIAN STATE OF AMAPA ON FRIDAY, WHERE THE
MOST INTENSE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IS ANTICIPATED. ON
SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND INTO FRENCH GUIANA,
DRIVING THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA UP. IN GENERAL, EXPECT A
DECREASING TREND IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE GUIANAS
AND THE AMAZON DELTA WITH PASSING DAYS AS THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THOUGH,
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL STILL BE PRESENT.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE AMAZON BASIN, EXPECT A
MOISTENING TREND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY,
WHICH WILL ASSIST IN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE A BASIN WIDE INCREASE IN TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE MAXIMA
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ZONES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NORTHERN PERU, ECUADOR, AND COLOMBIA,
THERE WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS PRESENT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THUS, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS, THE DIURNAL CYCLE, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
CONFINED TO ECUADOR AND FAR NORTHERN PERU FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS SPEED DIVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS.
ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST, EXPECT THERE TO BE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN MEXICO...
A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WITH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE PLUMES
WILL BE MOVING INTO NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS, LEADING TO MODEST DAILY TOTAL MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET (CLLJ)
WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ACROSS THIS REGION AS
WELL. IN HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, AND BELIZE, THERE WILL BE TWO
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WITH MOISTURE PLUMES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GUATEMALA,
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, AND MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS.
IN NORTHERN MEXICO, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS COAHUILA
BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LATE EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE REGION,
PROMOTING OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION. A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR TOTAL PRECIPTIATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITAITON INCREASING AFTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL BASIN, EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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