273
FXUS02 KWBC 051915
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 08 2026 - 12Z THU MAR 12 2026
...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
ITS DEPICTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. THERE REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF A PROTRACTED PERIOD WITH
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREATS FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE FUELED BY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND UPPER JET LIFT COMBINED WITH WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS
AND REPEAT ACTIVITY. TYPICAL SMALLER SCALE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
VARIANCES REMAIN, BUT THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER, HAZARDS, AND
MESSAGING. AS A RESULT, THE WPC FORECAST WAS PRODUCED UTILIZING A
BLEND OF THE 00Z EC, 00Z EC-AIFS, 00Z CMC, 00Z UKMET, AND THE 06Z
GFS THROUGH DAY 5, WITH INCREASING WEIGHT OF EC AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS UP TO 50% FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WELL DEFINED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED INITIALLY BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
AND WARMING SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS WAVY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER JET ENHANCE AND FOCUS THE ACTIVITY
THERE. RUNOFF THREATS MAY ALSO BUILD WITH EACH ROUND OF RAIN GIVEN
A REPEATING PATTERN WITH TRAINING POTENTIAL. MARGINAL RISK AREAS
FOR A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FLOODING/RUNOFF REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAY 4/SUNDAY AND DAY 5/MONDAY WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER TO EXTEND AND FLOURISH INTO NEXT WEEK WITH EXPANSION
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL U.S. SPC IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY
DAY 6/TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PROGRESSING OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER IN BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
WILL OFFER PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL U.S. MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR GROWING STREAM
PHASING WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE EJECTION OF THE BAJA
CLOSED LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT AND NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL STATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT BROAD SNOWS ON THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF EMERGING PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.
THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE EAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH 80S REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC. DAILY RECORDS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD.
MILLER/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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