408
FXUS01 KWBC 060801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 06 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 08 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A WINTRY
MIX STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FAVORABLY
TIMED LEAD UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER SHEER SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5). VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. A FOCUSED ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) COVERS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTH THROUGH
THE MO/KS/AR/OK WHERE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS. IN ADDITION, PLENTIFUL
GULF MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTATION FOR EXPANDING/ORGANIZED STORM
COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/5) CENTERED
ON THE ARKLATEX WHERE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS WELL AS SOUTH INTO
TEXAS ON SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERING A SIMILAR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TEXAS, AS THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS MOVE MORE
PARALLEL TO THE INCREASINGLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LEADING TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY. TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
FOLLOW IN THE COLD POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FURTHER EAST WITH A SWATH
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ELSEWHERE,
LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AN ENERGETIC
UPPER-PATTERN WITH SUSTAINED MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING ROUNDS OF LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL SHOWERS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
A DRYLINE AND THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK (LEVEL 2/3)
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR FRIDAY.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S
FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST ARE UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH AVERAGES,
AND NUMEROUS DAILY-RECORD TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 40S/50S NORTH AND 50S/60S
SOUTH. ONE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN COOLER INITIALLY WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR
TRAPPED IN PLACE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S AND 40S. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGHS RISE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER. IN THE WEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY VARY AROUND AVERAGE, WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES
FRIDAY, AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS OTHERWISE FRIDAY
RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S IN THE INTERIOR, THE 50S AND 60S FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL WARM-UP HERE AS WELL SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS INCREASING 5-10 DEGREES AND TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE.
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