631
FXCA20 KWBC 061508
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 6 MARCH 2026 AT 1510 UTC:
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MOISTURE PLUME WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 38MM. MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THIS REGION. THE AXIS OF
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT WILL REINFORCE VERTICAL
ASCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA, WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND ITS AXIS WILL ARRIVE INTO EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
ON SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, MOISTURE PLUMES WILL
BE MOVING INTO CUBA AND JAMAICA ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER LOW LEVEL
TROUGHS PRESENT IN THE REGION. THUS, FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ARE LIKELY IN
CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
STARTING LATE SATURDAY EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. A MID-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE COMBINATIONS OF THESE
CONDITIONS AND THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION. A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF
15 TO 25MM IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE IN HISPANIOLA, ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WITH TOTALS OF
25 TO 25 FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
IN MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO COAHUILA STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION WEAKEN INTO A
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL THROUGH AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY AND THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS COAHUILA, NUEVO
LEON, AND TAMAULIPAS. A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
MOVING OVER COAHUILA ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
REGION AND WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT
MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WITH THESE CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF COAHUILA. ON SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCEMENT IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN VERACRUZ DUE TO SUBTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE REGION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE, EXPECT MODEST TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS, PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT AND
SUSTENANCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, LEADING TO A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. ISOLATED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
WILL REACH 10MM WITH THESE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SONORA.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET (CLLJ) WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, EXPECT THE
DAILY PROPAGATION OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE
LOCATED OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS, EXPECT MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, AND PERU, A WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. DESPITE THIS, PRECIPITATION
WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE EXCEEDING 44MM. LOCAL EFFECTS, THE
DIURNAL CYCLE, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION
INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE AMAZON, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AMAZON. THE REGIONS WITH THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE PROXIMITY OF LOW
LEVEL TROUGHS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONES. IN GENERAL, THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG THE AMAZON DELTA AND
THE GUIANAS, THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE PLUME WILL ENHANCE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE TROPICAL BASIN, SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page