531
FXUS01 KWBC 062008
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2026
VALID 00Z SAT MAR 07 2026 - 00Z MON MAR 09 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
FARTHER NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS WINTRY MIX MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD WARMTH PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. AS ANOMALOUS WARMTH EMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ERUPT AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC COLD FRONT
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST WHERE THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, PLENTIFUL GULF
MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTATION FOR EXPANDING/ORGANIZED STORM
COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/5) CENTERED ON THE ARKLATEX WHERE
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS WELL AS SOUTH INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY, WITH
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS AHEAD
OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL COVERING A WIDER REGION FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. BY SUNDAY, THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLOWS DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN
THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN
BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY. TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO FOLLOW IN THE COLD POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, AN ENERGETIC
UPPER-PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING ROUNDS OF LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL SHOWERS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DRYLINE AND A COLD FRONT.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S
FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST ARE UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH AVERAGES,
AND NUMEROUS DAILY-RECORD TYING/BREAKING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE
40S/50S NORTH AND 50S/60S SOUTH. ONE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN COOLER
INITIALLY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR TRAPPED IN PLACE NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHS RISE 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER. IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY VARY AROUND
AVERAGE, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES FRIDAY, AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
HIGHS OTHERWISE FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S IN THE INTERIOR,
THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP HERE
AS WELL SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS INCREASING 5-10 DEGREES AND TRENDING
ABOVE AVERAGE. MEANWHILE, A WARMING TREND WILL EMERGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
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