412
FXUS01 KWBC 070716
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 07 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 09 2026
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISK EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS SATURDAY...
...LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD WARMTH PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. AS ANOMALOUS WARMTH EMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND INTO TEXAS SATURDAY.
INCREASED SHEAR AHEAD OF A LEADING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FEW
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN/SOUTH TEXAS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH A SECOND SLIGHT RISK
IN PLACE FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION, THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO TRAIN/REPEAT OVER THE SAME
AREAS AS STORM MOVEMENTS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE INCREASINGLY
EAST/WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND TEXAS HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) FOR THE THREAT OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE COAST FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END, WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEST INTO TEXAS, WITH MORE SCATTERED BUT
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS WELL. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
ENERGETIC UPPER-FLOW AND A PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA, AND AN
INTENSIFYING UPPER-LOW WILL BRING A SHOT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY. VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT CONTINUES,
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. SIMILARLY STRONG WINDS,
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 80 MPH POSSIBLE, ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY.
A MAINTAINED MORE NORTHERLY PRESENCE OF THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
THIS WEEKEND. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES MAY VARY THE DAY(S) IN
WHICH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE AT LEAST ONE MILDER MARCH DAY. FOR THE EASTERN U.S., THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE GREAT LAKES TO OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE UPWARDS OF
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH AVERAGES, AND NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS COULD BE SET. THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 80S SATURDAY, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS THESE
REGIONS SUNDAY. THE NORTHEAST, AFTER A COOLER END TO THE WEEK DUE
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL FINALLY SEE A WARM UP INTO THE
40S AND 50S SATURDAY WITH 60S BY SUNDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
70S AND 80S INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEST INTO PORTIONS
OF TEXAS. A RELATIVE COOL DOWN BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL WARM FROM THE 50S
SATURDAY INTO THE 60S AND 70S SUNDAY AS POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
MODERATE. ANOTHER BATCH OF POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING/BREAKING DAILY
HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THESE
TEMPERATURES REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE HERE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING WARMER AND FURTHER ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE INTERIOR AND THE 60S AND
70S FOR CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND WILL TREND
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES SUNDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
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