994
FXUS01 KWBC 071947
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 08 2026 - 00Z TUE MAR 10 2026
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISK EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS SATURDAY...
...LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD WARMTH PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. AS ANOMALOUS WARMTH EMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...
A STORMY SATURDAY IS IN STORE FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INCREASED SHEAR AHEAD OF A LEADING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FEW MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
EASTERN/SOUTH TEXAS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER WITH A SECOND SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
TRAIN/REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS AS STORM MOVEMENTS BECOME MORE
PARALLEL TO THE INCREASINGLY EAST/WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE THREAT OF SOME SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
SPREADING THE CONVECTION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
REGIONS FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE
LINGERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES.THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITHIN THE ENERGETIC
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA, AND AN
INTENSIFYING UPPER-LOW WILL BRING A SHOT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY. VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT CONTINUES,
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. SIMILARLY STRONG WINDS,
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 80 MPH POSSIBLE, ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY.
ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS A
VAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE GREATEST
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IN TERMS OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER, WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND 70S; WHICH, COULD YIELD
NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS. FOR THE SOUTHEAST,
DAILY HIGHS INTO THE 80S SATURDAY, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS THESE
REGIONS SUNDAY. THE NORTHEAST, AFTER A COOLER END TO THE WEEK DUE
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL FINALLY SEE A WARM UP INTO THE
40S AND 50S SATURDAY WITH 60S BY SUNDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
70S AND 80S INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEST INTO PORTIONS
OF TEXAS. A RELATIVE COOL DOWN BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL WARM FROM THE 50S
SATURDAY INTO THE 60S AND 70S SUNDAY AS POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
MODERATE. ANOTHER BATCH OF POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING/BREAKING DAILY
HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THESE
TEMPERATURES REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE HERE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING WARMER AND FURTHER ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE INTERIOR AND THE 60S AND
70S FOR CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND WILL TREND
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES SUNDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
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