296
FXUS01 KWBC 080736
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EST SUN MAR 08 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 08 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 10 2026
...LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
CONTINUES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY...
...ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER PATTERN AND CONSISTENT FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP LOWER
ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM REACHING
THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COMPARED
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
TO THE EAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WEST THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. WHILE THE
RISK IS LOWER COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS, SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER INTO MONDAY, LIKELY BEGINNING TO RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT WITH INCREASED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEST TO THE ARKLATEX, WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. MERGING
ENERGIES IN THE UPPER-LEVELS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
PLAINS TUESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MONDAY, BRINGING A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY, WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 80S MPH POSSIBLE. AN UPPER-LOW LINGERING OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WARM, DRY, AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAS PROMPTED A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MONDAY.
A MILD EARLY MARCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S., THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD EACH DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY ARE UPWARDS OF 25-35
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING
HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FOCUS ALONG
THE EAST COAST, A REPRIEVE ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND WHERE COLDER AIR HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE. FORECAST HIGHS
SUNDAY-MONDAY RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR NEW ENGLAND, THE 60S
AND 70S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND THE 80S SOUTH
INTO FLORIDA. WHILE NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS, HIGHS WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH 70S AND 80S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE INTERIOR WEST, 60S AND 70S IN
CALIFORNIA, AND 70S AND 80S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN
UPPER-LOW MEANDERING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME
COOLER HIGHS TO THE DESERTS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO
THE 70S. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE
COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
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