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FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MARCH 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 18 2026
TODAY'S 6-10 DAY MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN
MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN. THESE FEATURES
INCLUDE AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER ALL
BUT SOUTHWESTERN CANADA, EXTENDING INTO MOST OF ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGES AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC,
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS SMALL OVER THE CONUS, BUT MODERATE
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL OVER HAWAII, WITH MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE CONUS, AND OVER ALASKA, AS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS
AND THE FORECASTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN. OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES,
BIAS-CORRECTED AND ESPECIALLY RAW TEMPERATURES FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPANDING OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY GIVEN
THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERN
PLAINS, GULF COAST STATES, AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER HAWAII, IN LINE WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MUCH OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS PATTERN COINCIDES WITH THE APPROXIMATE MEAN
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA, SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE REFORECAST PRECIPITATION MAPS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS (RELATED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES), AND WESTERN ALASKA (DRIER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW). THE ECENS,
CMCE, AND NAEFS RAW PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT AS THE GEFS ON
THE ANOMALOUS DRYNESS FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 22 2026
TODAY'S WEEK-2 MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, BUT
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED OVER THE DOMAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF CANADA (EXCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN AND NOW PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA)
WITH A WEAKENED SOUTHWARD EXTENSION INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ONE LOBE OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ALASKA. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA/WESTERN
BERING SEA, THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. OVER THE HAWAIIAN DOMAIN, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WESTERN TENNESSEE, AND THE GULF COAST STATES.
MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 PERCENT OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. OF THE THREE
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, THE ECENS SOLUTION STANDS ALONE IN
EXTENDING ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF COAST REGION.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, AND OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ALIGNS
APPROXIMATELY WITH THE GENERAL STORM TRACK. NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WELL ENOUGH REMOVED FROM
THE MEAN STORM TRACK. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070322 - 20040305 - 19910221 - 20030219 - 20000319
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070320 - 19910221 - 19970217 - 20040307 - 20220317
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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