978
FXUS01 KWBC 090750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 09 2026 - 12Z WED MAR 11 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOOD RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...
...CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN
AND HEAVY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENHANCED BY A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY GULF FLOW HELPS TO LIFT
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CLUSTERS OF
ROBUST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY
FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS.
ON TUESDAY, A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH APPROACHING SPLIT
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FOCUS BOTH ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPLIT
NATURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN MAY LEAD TO A GAP IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, MOST LIKELY IN VICINITY OF THE MO/KS/AR/OK
REGION, WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN RISK ZONES. TO
THE NORTH, AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) HAS BEEN
ISSUED AS STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO LEAD
TO A FEW TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
ADDITIONAL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS. IN ADDITION, THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE/HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR STORM TO
CLUSTER/ORGANIZE BOTH ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/MISSOURI VALLEY AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN TEXAS WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, WITH SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVERING BOTH REGIONS. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AND THEN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND BEGINNING
TUESDAY. THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN
MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND, AND THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO BRING EVEN HEAVIER SNOW WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOLLOWING
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
GUSTY, WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES HAVE
ALSO PROMPTED CRITICAL RISKS OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) OVER
PORTIONS OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY,
WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED CONDITIONS (LEVEL 1/3) FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY.
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NOTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY, SPREADING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 70S ARE UPWARDS
OF 25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
ANOMALOUS, CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S TO NEAR 90 FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA, WITH ADDITIONAL
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE MUCH
WARMER INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH 50S AND 60S EXPECTED. SOME COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO MORE SEASONABLE 40S AND 50S.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN U.S, THOUGH WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW/CLOUDY WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
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