414
FXUS01 KWBC 091957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 10 2026 - 00Z THU MAR 12 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOOD RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...
...CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN
AND HEAVY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/5) MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA, AN ISOLATED RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK AREA IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH APPROACHING SPLIT
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
TWO MAIN REGIONS WERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED- THE FIRST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A VERY SLOWLY PROPAGATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SECOND AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH REGIONS
MAY SEE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. TO THE NORTH, AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) HAS BEEN ISSUED AS STORMS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSE A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW TORNADOES, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. IN ADDITION, THE
COMBINATION OF INTENSE/HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS AS WELL AS
THE TENDENCY FOR STORM TO CLUSTER/ORGANIZE BOTH ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MISSOURI VALLEY AS WELL AS
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN TEXAS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, WITH
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVERING BOTH
REGIONS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP PROMOTE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND, AND THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO BRING EVEN HEAVIER SNOW WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOLLOWING
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
GUSTY, WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES HAVE
ALSO PROMPTED CRITICAL RISKS OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) OVER
PORTIONS OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY,
WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED CONDITIONS (LEVEL 1/3) FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY.
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NOTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY, SPREADING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 70S ARE UPWARDS
OF 25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
ANOMALOUS, CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S TO NEAR 90 FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA, WITH ADDITIONAL
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE MUCH
WARMER INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH 50S AND 60S EXPECTED. SOME COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO MORE SEASONABLE 40S AND 50S.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN U.S, THOUGH WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW/CLOUDY WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
CAMPBELL/PUTNAM
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