592
FXUS06 KWBC 092001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 19 2026
TODAY'S 6-10 DAY MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN
MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN. THESE FEATURES
INCLUDE AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA, EXTENDING INTO MOST OF ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGES AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED OVER THE BERING SEA, FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS SMALL OVER THE CONUS, BUT MODERATE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR-AVERAGE OVER HAWAII, WITH MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE CONUS, AND OVER ALASKA, AS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS
AND THE FORECASTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
PREDICTS THE MOST WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS COLD, COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE THE ECENS REFORECAST IS MODEST WITH ITS ANOMALOUS COLD
COVERAGE, KEEPING IT CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN MAINE. THE CMCE SOLUTION
LIES IN-BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. THE BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW TEMPERATURE TOOLS
FROM THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS REFORECAST
TOOL, INDICATING WIDESPREAD FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE ANALOG FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT
BLEND DOESN'T BUY INTO THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF FORECAST BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TELECONNECTIONS WERE CONSIDERED USING A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER NEAR 60N/85W AND A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR 40N/120W. THESE
PROVIDED SOME SUPPORT FOR THE ANOMALOUS COLD TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF
COAST STATES, WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD (INLAND) PREFERENCE. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE SEASON FREEZE IN THE DEEP SOUTH, IT
WAS DECIDED TO GO WITH A MORE BULLISH VERSION OF YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH RESIDUAL ANOMALOUS WARMTH FAVORED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 90 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEARBY PARTS OF NEVADA.
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN HAWAII, IN LINE WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM WASHINGTON
STATE AND NORTHERN OREGON EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MUCH OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, AND
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS PATTERN COINCIDES WITH THE APPROXIMATE MEAN
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA, SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE REFORECAST PRECIPITATION MAPS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS (RELATED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES), AND WESTERN ALASKA (DRIER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW).
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OVER
THE EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 23 2026
TODAY'S WEEK-2 MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, BUT
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED OVER THE DOMAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH A WEAKENED SOUTHWARD EXTENSION INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALASKA. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA/BERING SEA, THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE HAWAIIAN DOMAIN, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO
REMAIN NEAR-AVERAGE DURING WEEK-2.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE FRACTION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. OF THE THREE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS, THE ECENS AND CMCE SOLUTIONS EXTEND THE FAVORED WARMTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF COAST REGION, WHILE THE GEFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE
FAVORED WARMTH NO FARTHER EAST THAN TEXAS. ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS ALSO FAVORED
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING THE
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. ONCE AGAIN,
THE ECENS REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE, FAVORING
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE CMCE FAVORS SOMEWHAT
GREATER COVERAGE THAN THE ECENS, AND THE GEFS IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH ITS
PREDICTION OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
OUT OF THE EAST, THE ACCOMPANYING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD RETREAT. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM WASHINGTON STATE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST, WITH RESIDUAL ANOMALOUS WETNESS FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ALIGNS APPROXIMATELY WITH THE
GENERAL STORM TRACK. NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HANG BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MAINLAND, IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ENHANCED OVER WESTERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA (IN THE SUBSIDENCE
REGION BEHIND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS), AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
WELL ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040305 - 20070321 - 19910221 - 20230218 - 20210223
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070320 - 19910221 - 20040305 - 19970217 - 20220318
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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