918
FXUS01 KWBC 100800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 10 2026 - 12Z THU MAR 12 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOOD RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...
...CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING
HIGHS POSSIBLE...
A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH APPROACHING SPLIT
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY (TUESDAY). TWO MAIN
REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WHERE LIFT AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE UPPER-WAVES: THE
FIRST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY, AND THE SECOND
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED BOTH REGIONS WITH AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
EXPECTATION STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE AHEAD
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING A GREATER RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, SLIGHT RISKS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVER BOTH REGIONS. FOR THE
NORTH, REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THE
UPSCALE/ORGANIZED GROWTH OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE
HEAVY RAINFALL COVERAGE. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY EXIST
BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS, LIKELY IN THE MO/KS/AR/OK VICINITY,
THOUGH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE AS
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL.
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN PLACE TO
COVER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE FOCUSED THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-WAVES OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONE WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE
CENTERED ON THE ARKLATEX WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS AHEAD OF
THE MERGING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MEANWHILE,
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, AND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MAINE, WHILE THE RISK FOR SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCRETIONS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY.
AN ALREADY ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS NOT ONLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT SEE
INCREASED HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY/COASTAL RAIN AND HEAVY HIGH
ELEVATION/INTERIOR SNOWS ARE ALREADY ONGOING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A SYSTEM TO START THE WEEK. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF GREATER MOISTURE
BRINGING EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW, AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY PROMPTED BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE IN THE 50S
AND 60S FOR NEW ENGLAND, THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE
70S TO NEAR 80 FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS
MAY BE SET. COLDER MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
NOTED FRONT FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S, AND THE FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AS
WELL, WITH 50S AND 60S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND 60S AND 70S IN
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE TUESDAY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER-LOW PASSES OVERHEAD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S, BEFORE ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS
RISE INTO THE 80S. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN COLDER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
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