592
FXCA20 KWBC 101729
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 MARCH 2026 AT 1730 UTC:
IN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, TWO SYSTEMS IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY OVER MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FINALLY REACHING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY, A POTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO, PROVIDING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION, THE LACK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST,
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND WITH IT DRY AIR AND ENHANCED
TRADE WIND INVERSIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTION IN THE
REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, MOIST PLUMES IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
ENTER THE CONTINENT, BUT THE LIMITING INVERSIONS WILL INHIBIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL REGIONS FROM MEXICO, THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. ON
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
PUSHES SOUTHWARD, DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OVER NORTH
MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE COUNTRY, FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN
TAMAULIPAS AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING NORTHERN VERACRUZ.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, TRACE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE REGION. OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, THIS
INTERACTION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION, PUSHING AN AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, WHILE A SECONDARY NUCLEUS
REMAINS OVER SOUTH MEXICO EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA REGION. BY THURSDAY,
THE COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH WEAK DUE TO A WEAK THICKNESS GRADIENT
PRESENT, IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ALONG EAST VERACRUZ AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE REGION AND INTO EAST MEXICO. THIS ADVECTION OF
COOLER, DRY AIR WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARMER, RELATIVELY MORE
MOIST AIR MASS IN THE REGION, FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, AND ALONG TABASCO/CHIAPAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON TUESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
NORTHERN COAHUILA, WHILE NORTHERN NUEVO LEON/TAMAULIPAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
REGION. BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.
OVER THE BAHAMAS, CARIBBEAN, AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, A DEEP
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA, WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
DOMINATING MOST OF THE FLOW, WITH MOIST PLUMES EMBEDDED, THAT WILL
REACH LAND, AND WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE, ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING CONVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE REGION, EXPECT CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS FROM NICARAGUA THROUGH PANAMA TO SEE THE HIGHER TOTALS OF
PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WEAKENING
THE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
IS BEING SQUEEZED BY THE RIDGING TO THE EAST AS WELL. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AS WELL AS WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DRY AIR IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN FURTHER THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER CUBA/HISPANIOLA, AS A NEW WIDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE BAHAMAS AND WEST CUBA, AND WITH IT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS FAVORING LIFT OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. ON
TUESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EAST CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND
NORTHWEST PANAMA. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES, AND ON THURSDAY, MAXIMA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10-15MM IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA AND A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH AMAZON, EAST
COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA, AND THE GUIANAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AREAS
OF CONFLUENCE ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AMAZON, WITH
THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT, FOR DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER SIMILAR REGIONS. TO THE EAST, A
PROPAGATING MOIST PLUME ENTERS THE GUIANAS AND THE EAST AMAZON
BASIN, FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BOLIVIAN HIGH AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SOUTH AMERICA REGION HAS WEAKENED, AS
THE BOLIVIAN HIGH HAS MEANDERED OVER THE SOUTH-EAST PACIFIC, AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS MEANDERED INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS HAS SHIFTED THE AREA
OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN AMAZON BASIN, WHERE
THE PROPAGATING MOIST PLUME IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL BRASIL AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. ON TUESDAY, EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM OVER THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN, AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN AS WELL AS FROM NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA AND COASTAL AMAPA. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA, WHILE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN ECUADOR. EXPECT THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN TO
SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
FROM NORTHERN SURINAME THROUGH AMAPA, AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN ECUADOR, AND THE EASTERN AMAZON BASIN, WITH HIGHER
LOCALIZED TOTALS EXPECTED.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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