907
FXUS06 KWBC 101911
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 20 2026
TODAY'S 6-10 DAY MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED, MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN.
THE FEATURES OF THIS REMARKABLY STABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN INCLUDE AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CANADA, EXTENDING INTO MOST OF ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGES AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
INDICATED OVER THE BERING SEA, FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL CONUS,
AND OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS SMALL OVER
THE CONUS, BUT MODERATE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE OVER HAWAII, WITH MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, AND OVER ALASKA, AS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND
THE FORECASTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE GEFS AND CMCE REFORECAST TOOLS
PREDICT THE MOST WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS COLD AND MAGNITUDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES, WHILE THE ECENS REFORECAST IS MUCH MORE LIMITED WITH ITS PREDICTED
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF ANOMALOUS COLD. THE BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW
TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE
GEFS AND CMCE REFORECAST TOOLS, INDICATING WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE ANALOG
FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND DOESN'T BUY INTO THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF FORECAST
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES; IN FACT, IT FORECASTS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS
THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION. A TWO-CLASS CHANGE IS FAVORED IN
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, FROM ANOMALOUS WARMTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, TO
ANOMALOUSLY COOL CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT'S PASSAGE. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN EXCESS OF 90 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
CALIFORNIA. WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN HAWAII, IN LINE
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS (INCLUDING PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST) AND EASTERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN COINCIDES WITH THE APPROXIMATE MEAN POSITION OF THE POLAR JET AND
ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE
EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BASED ON
THE REFORECAST PRECIPITATION MAPS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS (I.E., THE VAST MAJORITY)
RELATED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PREDICTED NEAR THE EAST COAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ALSO ENHANCED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER, NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS
FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT GUIDANCE AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS IN THE EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 24 2026
TODAY'S WEEK-2 MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN
MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, BUT UNCERTAINTY
HAS INCREASED OVER THE DOMAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
A WEAKENING, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH A WEAKENED SOUTHWARD EXTENSION INTO THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FORECASTING A SLIGHT
RISE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, DESPITE CLEAR CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE FULL HEIGHT FIELD. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH PIVOTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALASKA. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA/BERING SEA, THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO WELL
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE HAWAIIAN DOMAIN, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW-AVERAGE DURING WEEK-2.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN, CENTRAL CONUS, AND MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAXIMUM
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 PERCENT OVER THE
VICINITY OF ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PREDICTION IS WELL SUPPORTED
BY THE RAW, BIAS-CORRECTED, AND REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EAST COAST, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. NEARLY ALL TOOLS SUPPORT
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO MAINE. THIS
ALIGNS APPROXIMATELY WITH THE GENERAL STORM TRACK. OFF THE EAST COAST, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA, ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MAINLAND, IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, THOUGH RAW
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE INDICATING ANOMALOUS WETNESS OVER A MUCH LARGER
PORTION OF THE STATE. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS, WELL ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK,
WITH THE FAVORED DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS STRETCHING COAST-TO-COAST.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040305 - 19910220 - 20230218 - 19970228 - 20070321
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910220 - 20070320 - 20040305 - 20220318 - 19970217
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page