894
FXUS01 KWBC 101955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VALID 00Z WED MAR 11 2026 - 00Z FRI MAR 13 2026
...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD
RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY...
...CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, LATE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING
HIGHS POSSIBLE...
A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH APPROACHING SPLIT
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. TWO MAIN
REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WHERE LIFT AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVES: THE
FIRST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY, AND THE SECOND
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE NORTHERN
REGION WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER, WHERE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN THERE. THE REGION OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHER INSTABILITY, AND EXPECT STORMS TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT, WHICH
WILL BRING A GREATER RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES, LEADING TO AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) THERE. IN ADDITION, SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) COVER BOTH REGIONS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. FOR THE
NORTH, REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THE
UPSCALE/ORGANIZED GROWTH OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE
HEAVY RAINFALL COVERAGE. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY EXIST
BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS, LIKELY IN THE MO/KS/AR/OK VICINITY,
THOUGH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE AS
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL.
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN PLACE TO
COVER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE FOCUSED THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES IS DELINEATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVES OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ADJACENT APPALACHIANS, AND SEPARATELY FOR
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONE WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE CENTERED ON THE
ARKLATEX WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE MERGING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FRONT(S) SHOULD FINALLY
SWEEP THROUGH THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND END THE SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOOD THREATS BY THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE, COLDER AIR FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT,
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MAINE, WHILE THE
RISK FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCRETIONS IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS SECOND SYSTEM, HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE REASONABLY STRONG LOW.
AN ALREADY ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS NOT ONLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT SEE
INCREASED HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY/COASTAL RAIN AND HEAVY HIGH
ELEVATION/INTERIOR SNOWS ARE ALREADY ONGOING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A SYSTEM TO START THE WEEK. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF GREATER MOISTURE
BRINGING EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW, AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY PROMPTED BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND
MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, LATE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK, THOUGH A BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD COOL NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE 70S AND 80S
FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE 80S
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MAY AND EARLY JUNE IN MOST AREAS, AND NUMEROUS
DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS MAY BE SET. COLDER, MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL COME INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND A FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH REACHES THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY.
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AS
WELL, WITH 50S AND 60S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 60S AND 70S IN
CALIFORNIA, AND 80S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY AND FURTHER INTO THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD, AND HEATRISK SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE
AND LOCALLY MAJOR LEVELS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FARTHER NORTH,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT BUT STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TATE/PUTNAM
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