143
FXUS02 KWBC 110653
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 14 2026 - 12Z WED MAR 18 2026
..RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
...HEAVY SNOW/WIND THREATS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
A PROGRESSIVE BUT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE START OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ON SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THIS BRINGS A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN TURNS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. TO THE SOUTH, A ROBUST UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, BUT SOME VARIANCE IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WHICH LEADS TO NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR A SHORTWAVE
INTO THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WHICH AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LIKELY BRINGS A SWATH OF SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE POSSIBLE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS IN THIS REGION, THE EXACT AXIS
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. OUT WEST, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
HOLD OVER THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THE CMC SEEMED TOO AGGRESSIVE TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS.
THE WPC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, TRANSITIONING TO MORE
WEIGHTING ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THE LATER TIME
PERIODS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST QUITE WET
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGH TO DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWEST- ROCKIES-HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON SNOW, BUT STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT AXIS AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
THIS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
GREAT LAKES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH ALOFT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
HEAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD BREAKING VALUES
POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO VERY LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH AS WELL, WITH SOME
RECORDS POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP
FOR THE MIDWEST AND THE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING WITH IT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE
EAST WITH FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WELL INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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