982
FXUS01 KWBC 110800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 12Z WED MAR 11 2026 - 12Z FRI MAR 13 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER/FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MID- TO LATE WEEK...
...CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEK...
...ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HEAT
FOR THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPLIT
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-WAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE LIFT
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINING A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. TWO ZONES
WILL SEE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER:
THE FIRST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-WAVE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE; AND THE SECOND AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHERN UPPER-WAVE FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
ALSO EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, ENHANCED FORCING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
UPPER-WAVE MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND STORM
MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE INCREASINGLY MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF REPETITIVE
ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING AN END TO STORMS FOR ALL BUT FLORIDA.
TO THE NORTH, A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MAINE, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCRETIONS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN, ON THURSDAY, AN INTENSIFYING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOCUSED ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY WITH
SNOW SPREADING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
AN ALREADY ACTIVE, WET PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS NOT ONLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT
INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER MOVES INTO THE REGION. VERY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH TOTALS OF MULTIPLE FEET FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION, PROMPTING BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR
THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SEE WAVES OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING. MOST INTERIOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS WILL SEE A MIX OF LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT SOME MORE MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA. ELSEWHERE, GUSTY, WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) THURSDAY.
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST. SOME MID- TO UPPER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS,
UPWARDS OF 30-40 DEGREES ABOVE MID-MARCH AVERAGES. NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE NOTED
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP COOL DOWN TO MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE
40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/PLAINS, HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY, WITH 30S
AND 40S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES, 50S AND 60S INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND 60S AND 70S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN CONTRAST TO THE EAST, A STARK WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRENDING FURTHER
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS BY
THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, THE
70S AND 80S FOR CALIFORNIA, AND THE 80S AND 90S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TO THE NORTH, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN COLDER, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
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