485
FXUS02 KWBC 112000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 14 2026 - 12Z WED MAR 18 2026
...RECORD WARMTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...
...HEAVY SNOW/WIND THREATS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND...
..OVERVIEW
A PROGRESSIVE BUT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE START OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ON SATURDAY, AS ONE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED
BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATTER IS
FORECAST TO DIG IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY WHILE SPINNING UP
A REASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES,
WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE LOW'S STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING EASTWARD. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FURTHER AS
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES, AS TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY WARM TO RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE.
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS LIKE THE EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK REMAIN A BIT
QUESTIONABLE, BUT AFTER THE 00Z GFS WAS SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO CONSENSUS, THE RECENT 06Z AND 12Z
DETERMINISTIC/AI/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TRACK HAS ONLY
MINIMAL SPREAD. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF A SOUTHWEST UPPER HIGH
WITH RIDGING EXPANDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE
TROUGHING STALLS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK LOOKS
VERY PREDICTABLE. WITH THE REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, WAS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN A MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THE MASS FIELD
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST WILL AMPLIFY UPPER
TROUGHING AND LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE ROCKIES SATURDAY, AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES INTO SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW TOTALS (POTENTIALLY OVER A FOOT) ARE CURRENTLY LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOW. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MODEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
THOUGH MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOMEWHAT WET THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY
SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES AS A
MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COMES THROUGH, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ERO AREAS ON DAY 5/SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
RAIN WILL OCCUR, SNOW LEVELS, AND RAINFALL RATES. HEAVY SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST INLAND INTO THE
ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.
HEAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD BREAKING VALUES
POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO VERY LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. OVER
THE WEEKEND, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH AS
WELL, WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP FOR THE MIDWEST AND THE EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING WITH IT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, AND CHILLY LOWS MAY LEAD
TO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TATE/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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