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FXUS06 KWBC 121901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 12 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 22 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND INDICATING A +210 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA, INCLUDING MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (+AO).
RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, TROUGHING IS FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BROADEN, RESULTING IN A DISPLACEMENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS EVOLUTION AND DEPICT TROUGHING
PERSISTING LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE GEFS. AS A RESULT, CLOSER
TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST. NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS INTO PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 90 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE TEMPERATURES
20-30 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL ARE PREDICTED, WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATING WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S DEG F ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONVERSELY,
TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE EAST IS FAVORED TO BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WHILE MODERATION IS LIKELY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT ANOTHER BRIEF
SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD GIVEN MORE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AND SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AS A
WHOLE, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHEAST. CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER ALASKA AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE, WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SURROUNDING HAWAII FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE WEST RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWARD ORIENTED STORM
TRACK INTO CANADA, AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PREDICTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
EAST DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPARTING PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SLIGHT TILTS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD, AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THERE IS MORE
INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS.
ANOMALOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUBTROPICS AND POTENTIAL
KONA LOW FORMATION FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5.
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS REGARDING SUBSTANTIAL WARMTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 26 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THE RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS IN
THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER (+120 METERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS) IS LOWER COMPARED TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EAST, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (-NAO) PATTERN EMERGING LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS RIDGING BUILDS NEAR GREENLAND. THIS MAINTAINS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE
MANUAL BLEND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS LEADING TO DECREASING HEIGHTS IN THE
WAKE OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING, WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA, WITH RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA LEADING TO
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ALTHOUGH TROUGHING
UPSTREAM MAY TILT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALSO SPREADING FARTHER INTO THE
EAST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) REMAIN OVER THE LOWER
FOUR CORNERS. WHILE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO FAVOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST, WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES BEING COLDER COMPARED TO THE
GEFS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A -NAO TO DEVELOP AND KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. TROUGHING APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS DECREASING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON, FURTHER ENHANCED
BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR ALASKA. AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS, SOME MODERATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII.
A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-2,
EXTENDING THE DRY PERIOD SEEN IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT)
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS NEAR THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WITH LIMITED SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. NEAR-TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA, AND
ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. TROUGHING MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS FAVORS AN UPTICK IN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN ALASKA. ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE FOR HAWAII, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY INCREASING SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND DECREASING AMPLIFICATION.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20170302 - 19910220 - 19970309 - 19970301
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 19910220 - 20220318 - 20040305 - 19970302
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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