709
FXUS02 KWBC 130643
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 16 2026 - 12Z FRI MAR 20 2026
***RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK***
***STRONG STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. FOR NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN
U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SLOW MODERATION OF THE
COLD AIR MASS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OPPOSITE WILL HOLD
TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/CLOSED
UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND RECORD BREAKING
EARLY SEASON HEAT EXPECTED FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW IN PLACE. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE NOTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE SLOWER 12Z CMC
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND AIFS GUIDANCE. THE FEATURE WITH HIGHEST
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THE SUMMER-LIKE CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
VARIANCE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED TO ABOUT 40% BY NEXT FRIDAY TO HELP MITIGATE
SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, THE WINDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW, SO WINDS AND GUSTS WERE RAISED TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
MIXING FROM THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS MORE TO THE EAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A POTENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY, WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 FEET, AND LOCALLY UP TO 30 INCHES
WHERE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BANDS SET UP. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
VALID FOR THE DAY 4/MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL LIKELY, AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR INSTANCES OF FLOODING.
WINDS MAY GUST OVER 50 MPH WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND SIMILAR WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EAST COAST, WITH READINGS MORE TYPICAL OF
JANUARY INSTEAD OF MID-MARCH.
SUMMER IS ARRIVING EARLY FOR A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WITH A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HAVING SOME STAYING POWER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AND LIKELY
BEYOND, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY. NUMEROUS
DAILY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, AND
SOME MONTHLY MARCH RECORDS ARE ALSO LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST! THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, AND THE FIRST
TRIPLE DIGITS OF THE SEASON (AND EARLIEST ON RECORD) EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO BY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAT WILL ALSO
MAKE HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EXPANDING EAST TO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON BORDER SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND
AFFECT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA GOING INTO TUESDAY, WHERE A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS VALID. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN
UNEVENTFUL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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