802
FXUS01 KWBC 130816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 13 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 15 2026
...INTENSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...
...ACTIVE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN BRINGING HEAVY LOWER
ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...A WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER ON SATURDAY, REACHING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING...
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
A RATHER INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE UPPER AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMINDER OF TODAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO
12+ INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS CAN PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW TOGETHER WITH STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICK SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AS THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL BEGIN TO EXIT NEW
ENGLAND LATER ON SATURDAY BUT SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6+ INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENTS.
MEANWHILE, AN ACTIVE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE
OLYMPICS/CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
FOR THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE
LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LINGERING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS A PRECURSOR OF A
MAJOR WINTER STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PENETRATES FARTHER INLAND,
IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA.
THE INTERACTION WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM ON SATURDAY OVER WYOMING WHERE THE
ARCTIC AIR AND PACIFIC JET STREAM MEETS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE SNOW FURTHER EXPAND AND SPREAD QUICKLY
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF WYOMING. A NARROW SWATH OF VERY
HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK,
TOGETHER WITH A BAND OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE INTENSE WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHERE
THE SNOW IS HEAVIEST. SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER, ANOMALOUS
WARMTH WILL PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENTLY DRY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE RISK ON SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE BUT THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO
WINTRY CONDITIONS AND EVEN SOME SNOW OCCURRED YESTERDAY BEHIND A
SHARP COLD FRONT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. THE CHILLY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
U.S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
SETTLES IN. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
AND 70S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 70S AND 80S FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
AND 90S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME
DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SERVE
AS A BASELINE FOR EVEN MORE ANOMALOUS, MORE WIDESPREAD
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A FRONT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
KONG/ORRISON/PUTNAM
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