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FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), WITH THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND INDICATING A +210 METER
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA, INCLUDING MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (+AO). RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, TROUGHING IS
FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER, AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BROADEN, RESULTING
IN A DISPLACEMENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST. TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST ISLANDS.
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH
STRONG RIDGING. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 90 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES
20-30 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL ARE PREDICTED, WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATING WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S DEG F ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S DEG F ARE ALSO PREDICTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. CONVERSELY, TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE EAST IS FAVORED TO BRING
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WHILE MODERATION IS
LIKELY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, THE GEFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY REGARDING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD TIED TO
MORE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY, NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS,
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER ALASKA AND
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE STATE, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SURROUNDING HAWAII FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS RESULTS IN A MORE
NORTHWARD ORIENTED STORM TRACK INTO CANADA, AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SLIGHT TILTS
TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD, AND ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THERE IS MORE INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING AND
CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR-TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA CONSISTENT
WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS. ANOMALOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC SUBTROPICS AND POTENTIAL KONA LOW FORMATION FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5.
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS REGARDING SUBSTANTIAL WARMTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THE RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS IN
THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER (+120 METERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS) IS LOWER COMPARED TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EAST, THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A NEGATIVE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (-NAO) PATTERN EMERGING LATER IN THE PERIOD AS RIDGING
BUILDS NEAR GREENLAND. THIS MAINTAINS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE MANUAL BLEND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS LEADING TO DECREASING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF
ANOMALOUS RIDGING. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH WOULD BE SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE WEAKER ECMWF GIVES SOME PAUSE, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS INDICATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA, WITH RIDGING
OVER THE BERING SEA LEADING TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND FAR
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR MOST OF
HAWAII, ALTHOUGH TROUGHING UPSTREAM MAY TILT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALSO SPREADING FARTHER INTO THE
EAST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) ARE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE GEFS TRENDING COLDER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A -NAO
TO DEVELOP AND KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TROUGHING
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS DECREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON, FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED
FOR ALASKA. AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS, SOME MODERATION IS
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII.
A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-2,
EXTENDING THE DRY PERIOD SEEN IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY EMERGING ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES DEPICT MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION TIED TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WEST COAST. WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. INCREASED CHANCES
OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS NEAR THE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER, AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WITH LIMITED SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
NEAR-TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN ALASKA.
ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE FOR HAWAII, WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY DECREASING AMPLIFICATION AND
EMERGING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170302 - 20070314 - 19970310 - 20240228 - 20040318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 19910220 - 20070318 - 20170301 - 19970308
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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