952
FXUS01 KWBC 131948
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 00Z SAT MAR 14 2026 - 00Z MON MAR 16 2026
...INTENSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...
...ACTIVE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN BRINGING HEAVY LOWER
ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...A WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER ON SATURDAY, REACHING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING...
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS AN
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12+ INCHES ALONG WITH THE STRONG AND VERY
GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AS THIS
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
EXITING THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW IN
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6+ INCHES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENTS.
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, HEAVY
LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO AN ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
DIRECTED TOWARD THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE
OLYMPICS/CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
FOR THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE
LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PENETRATES FARTHER INLAND, IT WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA. THE INTERACTION
WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO FORM ON SATURDAY OVER WYOMING WHERE THE ARCTIC AIR AND PACIFIC
JET STREAM MEETS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE
SNOW FURTHER EXPAND AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS
OUT OF WYOMING. A NARROW SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
JUST NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK, TOGETHER WITH A BAND OF
WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO
BECOME QUITE INTENSE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IMPACTING MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHERE THE SNOW IS HEAVIEST. SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER,
ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE BUT THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED WARM UP FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 70S AND
80S FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 90S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SERVE AS A BASELINE FOR EVEN MORE
ANOMALOUS, MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A FRONT
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING MULTIPLE FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
CAMPBELL/KONG/ORRISON/PUTNAM
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