677
FXUS02 KWBC 131956
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 16 2026 - 12Z FRI MAR 20 2026
..RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK
...STRONG STORM BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS LINGERS IN THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...
..OVERVIEW
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 FOR NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND PRODUCE LINGERING HEAVY SNOW THERE ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS.
AMPLE MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN THE EAST MONDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES WHILE MEAN UPPER TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE EAST.
THE OPPOSITE WILL HOLD TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/CLOSED UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING RECORD- BREAKING EARLY SEASON HEAT EXPECTED
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A MODERATE BUT
PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST, AS WELL AS WITH THE DEEP GREAT LAKES
LOW MONDAY. MULTIPLE CMC RUNS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND AIFS GUIDANCE, SO CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY
FROM IT. THE FEATURE WITH HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THE
SUMMER-LIKE CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THIS UPPER HIGH SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD INTO LATER WEEK AS
THE EASTERN TROUGHING SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST--THOUGH
POTENTIALLY RELOADS SOMEWHAT WITH SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO ABOUT 40%
BY NEXT FRIDAY TO HELP MITIGATE SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES WITH THOSE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A POTENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY, WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 FEET, AND LOCALLY MORE THAN 30
INCHES WHERE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BANDS SET UP. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, A SURGE OF DEEP COMBINED GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED,
WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT NEAR
THE MAX FOR MARCH IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINSTORMS MOVE IN AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK DAY 5/MONDAY
IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. SOME
AREAS STILL HAVE SNOW COVERED LAND AND ICE COVERED WATERS, WHICH
COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. WINDS
MAY GUST OVER 50 MPH WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE LOW AS WELL.
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN NEXT WEEK,
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BREAK MARCH
RECORDS. THIS WILL HAVING SOME STAYING POWER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. DOZENS OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS
ARE EXPECTED, AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET MARCH RECORDS.
PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR EARLIEST 100F
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD WHILE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ARE FORECAST
FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA. 80S AND 70S FOR
HIGHS COULD ALSO BE RECORD-SETTING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE, A COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.
MONDAY GRADUALLY EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONCERNS
FOR LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZES TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON MAY HAVE BEGUN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MID AND LATE
WEEK AS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS, LEADING TO 80S AND 90S
FOR HIGHS THERE.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAN EXPECT A WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK, AS A
MODERATE BUT PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PRIMARILY AIMS AT BRITISH
COLUMBIA BUT SHIFTS/EXPANDS INTO WASHINGTON IN PARTICULAR AT
TIMES. A DAY 5/TUESDAY MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE IN THE ERO FOR THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS HEAVY RAIN MORE CONFIDENTLY EDGES SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER, AFTER A POTENTIALLY WET DAY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MIDWEEK BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTIES BY THURSDAY IN THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE. OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
TATE/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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