981
FXUS02 KWBC 140724
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 17 2026 - 12Z SAT MAR 21 2026
***RECORD HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. FOR NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITING NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
MORNING. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN
U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SLOW MODERATION OF THE
COLD AIR MASS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OPPOSITE WILL HOLD
TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/CLOSED
UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND RECORD BREAKING
EARLY SEASON HEAT EXPECTED FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW IN PLACE. THE
FEATURE WITH HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THE SUMMER-LIKE CLOSED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO ABOUT 40% BY NEXT SATURDAY
TO HELP MITIGATE SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, THE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY ARE
PROBABLY TOO LOW, SO WINDS AND GUSTS WERE RAISED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS MORE TO
THE EAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF QPF IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A POTENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC
ON TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE NORTHEAST COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS MAY GUST OVER 50 MPH WITH A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MAINE,
AND SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
COLD SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH READINGS MORE
TYPICAL OF JANUARY INSTEAD OF MID-MARCH. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDS IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SUMMER IS ARRIVING EARLY FOR A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WITH A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HAVING SOME STAYING POWER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, AND SOME MONTHLY MARCH RECORDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, AND THE FIRST TRIPLE
DIGITS OF THE SEASON (AND EARLIEST ON RECORD) EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN MORE SO BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, EXTREME HEAT WATCHES ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WIDESPREAD HEAT WILL ALSO MAKE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EXPANDING EAST TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO
THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON BORDER SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND
AFFECT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA GOING INTO TUESDAY, WHERE A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS VALID. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN UNEVENTFUL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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