874
FXUS01 KWBC 140829
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 14 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 16 2026
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...
...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...
...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AS THE TAIL END OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT TAPERS OFF ALONG THE
CASCADES...
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND VERY
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY, BRINGING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THE MOST RECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS REACHING ITS
TAIL END STAGE TODAY AS THE MAIN JET STREAM ENERGY MOVES FARTHER
INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA TO EXPAND THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
THE SNOW EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS
INTERACTION IS A PRECURSOR OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FORM TODAY OVER WYOMING WHERE THE ARCTIC AIR
AND PACIFIC JET STREAM MEET. BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE
SNOW WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT OF WYOMING AND INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY. BY SUNDAY MORNING,
THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME QUITE INTENSE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK, ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF
WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE REACHES PEAK INTENSITY AND
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUTH OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE, ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENTLY DRY AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL
MAKE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE RISK TODAY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE BUT
THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. AS THE INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD, A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. A SQUALL LINE
CONTAINING SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
POTENT FRONT, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE
MID-SOUTH. BY MONDAY MORNING, SEVERE WEATHER COULD EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE DEEP SOUTH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISKED OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE,
SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE DOWN THE PLAINS. WIND CHILL VALUES
-10S AND -20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH BELOW FREEZING WIND CHILLS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
TEXAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED WARM UP FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 70S AND
80S FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 90S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SERVE AS A BASELINE FOR EVEN MORE
ANOMALOUS, MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A FRONT
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
KONG/CAMPBELL/ORRISON
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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