768
FXUS06 KWBC 141909
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT MARCH 14 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 24 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
500-HPA FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY, GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
POSITIVE PHASES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO), AND THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA)
PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND ALASKA. A PAIR
OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS, CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE
RIDGING, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREDICTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 180 METERS ABOVE
NORMAL NEAR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE PREDICTED ANOMALOUS STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE LEADS
TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD TO
THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING IN
THE VICINITY. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGHING
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EVEN
HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST, CLOSE TO THE
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY OBSERVED
ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (RANGING FROM A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALONG THE CONUS/CANADA BORDER, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXPECTED ENHANCED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN PREDICTED RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, NEAR A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 28 2026
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE POSITIVE AO AND NAO
PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE PRECEDING 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN, PARTICULARLY IN THE GEFS-BASED SOLUTIONS. THE END RESULT OF THIS
POTENTIAL TRANSITION IS A LOWER AMPLITUDE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN RELATIVE TO BOTH
TODAY'S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK AND YESTERDAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. THE MEAN PATTERN
STILL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, AS THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE POSITIVE AO/NAO PATTERN
RELATIVE TO THE GEFS. PROMINENT HIGH LATITUDE FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA, ALBEIT WITH
REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. CORRESPONDINGLY, THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THE
RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE EXPANSIVE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM COAST TO COAST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS HAWAII, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL
LONG-DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
DESPITE THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE WEEK-2 PATTERN, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES,
PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY, MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT THAT THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT, RESULTING IN
CONTINUED ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, AS THE
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, DUE TO
PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARMER
THAN NORMAL, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING FAVORED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS WELL INTO WEEK-2,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE COUNTRY FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED
FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MEAN LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL AS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA
DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN OFFSHORE FLOW. A PROLONGED ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A GREATER THAN A 50 PERCENT
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION POSTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
PREDICTED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD OFFSET BY A POTENTIAL
PATTERN TRANSITION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170302 - 20070314 - 19970310 - 19890305 - 20040318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20170302 - 20070318 - 19970309 - 20240228
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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