116
FOUS11 KWBC 141948
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 15 2026 - 00Z WED MAR 18 2026
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-3...
...BLIZZARD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS
AND RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER
STORM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AS A LEE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS INTO
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN. WHILE IT IS THIS LEE CYCLONE THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, THIS EVENT IS
REALLY TWO-PRONGED WITH THE FIRST EVENT ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS EVENT HAS BEGUN THIS
AFTERNOON AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS IN MORE IMPRESSIVE FASHION
EAST OF CO/WY. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO, MONTANA, AND
WYOMING WILL DRIVE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM, WITH
IMPRESSIVE JET STREAK INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS A RESULT. THE
OVERLAP OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS JET DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM CO TO IA BEFORE 12Z
SUNDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY IS WHEN THIS EVENT TRULY BECOMES A MAJOR WINTER
EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IT WILL ENCOUNTER DUAL
MOISTURE STREAMS, ONE FROM THE DECAYING AR PUSHING EAST, AND A
SECOND AS THE THETA-E RIDGE BEGINS TO ARC NORTHWARD ON INTENSIFYING
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. THE OVERLAP OF ROBUST DEEP
LAYER ASCENT WITH MAXIMIZING MOISTURE RETURN WILL DEEPEN THE LOW
SUBSTANTIALLY, AND HELP EXPAND A CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION SHIELD,
WITH HEAVY SNOW ARCING FROM SD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING
THROUGH D3 AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z/TUESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR A CLASSIC MIDWEST
WINTER STORM WITH WIDESPREAD INTENSE SNOWFALL. EMBEDDED BANDS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR ARE EXPECTED AS REFLECTED BY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR CSI AND EVEN CI IN MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTN
INTO MONDAY WHICH DRIVES INTENSE OMEGA INTO THE TROWAL. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
A LATERALLY TRANSLATING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM SD INTO MN SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH THE ENVIRONMENT TRANSITING INTO ONE THAT MATCHES THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A PIVOTING BAND OVER EASTERN MN AND WI SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY, IT IS IN THIS AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED, AND POTENTIALLY RECORD, OR NEAR-RECORD 2-DAY SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN MN THROUGH WI AND NORTHERN MI. ELSEWHERE,
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR OR MORE ARE STILL LIKELY AT TIMES, JUST
WITH LESSER DURATION. THESE SNOWFALL RATES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS REACHING UP TO 60 MPH WILL CREATE BLIZZARD AND NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AND WHITEOUTS, WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME IMPACTS PROGGED BY
THE RECENT WSSI-P. EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET LOWER SNOW TOTALS, THE
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL STILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL, AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST FORMS OF TRANSPORTATION WILL BE TREACHEROUS
AT BEST, AND IMPOSSIBLE AT WORST, THROUGH THE EVENT ACROSS A LARGE
AREA FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN, AND EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN.
EVENT-TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE EXTREME IN SOME AREAS. THIS IS
REFLECTED BY 72-HR WPC PROBABILITIES (ENDING 12Z TUESDAY) THAT ARE
HIGH (>70%) FOR AT LEAST 12" FROM THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES OF SD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES, ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL WI,
AND THE ENTIRETY OF THE U.P. OF MI. WHERE SNOWFALL IS MOST
PROLIFIC, LIKELY IN NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P OF MI, WPC
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 70-90+% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 24", AND
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS EVENT ENDS.
THIS COULD RESULT IN RECORD SNOWFALL IN SOME PLACES, AND WITH SLRS
BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, POWER
OUTAGES AND LONG-LASTING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THESE REASONS,
WINTER STORM KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT, AND ARE LINKED BELOW (KEY
MESSAGE 1).
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE WANING RAPIDLY IN DIRECT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM, TRANSITIONING MORE AND MORE TO LAKE-
EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF ALL OF THE LAKES. PRONOUNCED CAA ON NW
FLOW IN ITS WAKE COULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FAVORED NW SNOW BELTS DOWNSTREAM OF ALL THE GREAT LAKES. WPC
PROBABILITIES ARE MODERATE (50%) FOR AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW FROM LES
IN SW MI, AS WELL AS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND INTO THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR MARQUETTE, MI
AS WELL, ADDING ONTO THE EXTREME SNOWFALL EVENT THERE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE LAKE- EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
LARGELY DISSIPATING.
ON THE S/SE SIDE OF THIS SNOWFALL SWATH, AN AXIS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY, LEADING TO ICING ACCRETION FROM CENTRAL IA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND INTO LOWER MI. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MI WHERE WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
0.25" OF ICE HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR 60%, AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.10" OF ICE HAVE EXTENDED BACK INTO SE
MN.
WEGMAN/WEISS
...WINTER STORM KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT
KEY MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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