849
FXUS01 KWBC 150832
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 15 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 17 2026
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
MID-SOUTH TODAY, AND THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S....
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...
AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN CONCERT WITH ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVING FROM CANADA TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPAND
AND INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. A
SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MOST SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT AREAS FROM NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN TO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAY TODAY WHEN A COUPLE OF FEET OF VERY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE CENTER TOGETHER WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER AND PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATER ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE HUGE
CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO EXIT THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE EASTERN U.S. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE, ANOMALOUS
WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ENGULFED THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WARM AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
EARLY TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. AS THE INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD, A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A SQUALL LINE CONTAINING
SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE POTENT
FRONT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH. BY MONDAY MORNING, SEVERE WEATHER COULD EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS
WELL AS THE DEEP SOUTH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISKED OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE,
SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE DOWN THE PLAINS. WIND CHILL VALUES
-10S AND -20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH BELOW FREEZING WIND CHILLS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
TEXAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE
SWEEPING INTO THE EAST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE POTENT FRONT AND MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE RIPE FOR ERUPTION OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING RAPIDLY UP THE EAST COAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR THE ALREADY VOLATILE
SITUATION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS REGION FOR MONDAY. PLEASE STAY WEATHER
ALERT ON THE UPCOMING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIALS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING WINDY AND
SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER INTO THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL SERVE AS A BASELINE FOR EVEN MORE ANOMALOUS, MORE WIDESPREAD
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A FRONT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TODAY INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
KONG
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