989
FXUS06 KWBC 151901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MARCH 15 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 25 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
500-HPA FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY, GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
POSITIVE PHASES OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA STRETCHING
ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND ALASKA. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND OVER EASTERN CANADA. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST UPSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH, CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, WITH IMPRESSIVE
POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF GREATER THAN +210 METERS. THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE RIDGING, WITH
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREDICTED TO BE GREATER THAN 120 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STILL ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, TODAY'S
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A REDUCTION IN AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND EXTENDS TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE PREDICTED
ANOMALOUS STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE LEADS TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA.
CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EVEN HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
DUE TO PREDICTED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND, CLOSE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (RANGING FROM A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. A SECONDARY HIGH
CONFIDENCE AREA (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, DUE TO PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ALONG THE CONUS/CANADA
BORDER, FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ENHANCED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
PREDICTED RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN
OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, NEAR A
PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 29 2026
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE POSITIVE AO PATTERN
PREDICTED FOR THE PRECEDING 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN, PARTICULARLY IN THE GEFS-BASED SOLUTIONS. THE END RESULT OF THIS
POTENTIAL TRANSITION IS A LOWER AMPLITUDE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN RELATIVE TO BOTH
TODAY'S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK AND YESTERDAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. THE MEAN PATTERN
STILL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, AS THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE POSITIVE AO PATTERN RELATIVE
TO THE GEFS. PROMINENT HIGH LATITUDE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED FOR THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA, ALBEIT WITH REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY
PERIOD. A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF
GREENLAND, FAVORING TROUGH PERSISTENCE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
CONUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
EXPANSIVE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM COAST TO
COAST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS HAWAII,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL LONG-DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
DESPITE THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE WEEK-2 PATTERN, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. CONVERSELY, MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT THAT THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT, RESULTING IN CONTINUED ELEVATED
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA AND A COOLING TREND IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS THE
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, DUE TO
PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARMER
THAN NORMAL, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING FAVORED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS WELL INTO WEEK-2,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE COUNTRY FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL AS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA
DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN OFFSHORE FLOW. A PROLONGED ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A GREATER THAN A 40 PERCENT
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION POSTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
PREDICTED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD OFFSET BY A POTENTIAL
PATTERN TRANSITION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070314 - 20170302 - 19970310 - 19890304 - 20040318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20170302 - 19970309 - 20070318 - 19890305
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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