218
FXUS01 KWBC 151948
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VALID 00Z MON MAR 16 2026 - 00Z WED MAR 18 2026
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
MID-SOUTH TODAY, AND THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S....
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. A
SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MOST SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT AREAS FROM NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN TO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAY TODAY WHEN A COUPLE OF FEET OF VERY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE CENTER TOGETHER WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER AND PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATER ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE HUGE
CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO EXIT THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE EASTERN U.S. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ENGULFED THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WHILE MAINTAINING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. ARCTIC AIR WILL BLAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY AS THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD, A
RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE -10S AND -20S BY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP
SPREADING GUSTY WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND MID-SOUTH. THE STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
SHIFTING THE THREAT FOR SEVER WEATHER FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE DEEP SOUTH
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISKED OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING INTO
THE EAST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AHEAD OF
THE POTENT FRONT AND MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE RIPE FOR
ERUPTION OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
MID-ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING RAPIDLY UP THE EAST COAST ALONG THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR THE ALREADY VOLATILE
SITUATION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS REGION FOR MONDAY. PLEASE STAY WEATHER
ALERT ON THE UPCOMING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIALS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING WINDY AND
SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER INTO THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL SERVE AS A BASELINE FOR EVEN MORE ANOMALOUS, MORE WIDESPREAD
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A FRONT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TODAY INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
CAMPBELL/KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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