239
FOUS11 KWBC 161822
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 17 2026 - 00Z FRI MAR 20 2026
..GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-2...
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...
AS THIS HISTORIC WINTER STORM RACES NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA TONIGHT, POTENT NW WINDS AND CAA IN ITS WAKE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH
LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND SOMEWHAT ICE COVERED, ACCORDING TO
GLERL, 850MB TEMPS CRASHING TO AS LOW AS -20C WILL FOSTER STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED PROFILES WITHIN THE DGZ
ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE LES SNOW BANDS WITH RATES ABOVE 1"/HR
(40-70% CHANCE) TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LESSEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST, BUT PROLONGED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FUEL ROUNDS OF MODERATE-TO-
HEAVY SNOW IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. LES BANDS SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR LES ARE MODERATE-TO-HIGH D1 (50-70) FOR 4+
INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MICHIGAN'S MITTEN NEAR TRAVERSE
CITY, ALONG THE EASTERN U.P., AND IN THE SOUTHWEST L.P.. FARTHER
EAST, PROBABILITIES AROUND 50% FOR SNOWFALL >4" ARE LOCATED ALONG
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE TUG HILL ON
SOUTH CLOSER TO OSWEGO, NY COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WITH
LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS & INTERIOR NORTHEAST
DAYS 1-2...
A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. IN WAKE OF THIS FROPA, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET DUE TO STRONG CAA, WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGLY TILTED AND DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, THIS WILL CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE FINGER LAKES OF NY AND THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS.
WHILE MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL JUST BE CONVERSATIONAL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
A TWO-PART EVENT SUPPORTING OF HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. THE
FIRST WILL BE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS P-TYPE CHANGES RAPIDLY
FROM RAIN TO SNOW, LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES
SURPASSING 1"/HR (40-60% CHANCE) FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF
NY. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODEST,
GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" INITIALLY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
INCREASING CAA VIA NW FLOW WILL FOSTER HEALTHY UPSLOPE ASCENT INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TYPICALLY FAVORED
AREAS ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ALLEGHENIES ABOVE 2,000FT
WILL BE FAVORED FOR LONG SNOW DURATIONS, AND THUS HIGHER TOTALS.
WPC PROBABILITIES PEAK ABOVE 50% FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION, AS THE TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY, WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA, AND ON SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO CONTEND WITH ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW
RATES AND GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE LOCAL TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO RAPID
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
WEISS/MULLINAX
...WINTER STORM KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT
KEY MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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