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FXCA20 KWBC 161902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 MARCH 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S.,
EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY OVER THE VERACRUZ AND TABASCO REGIONS STARTING TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35-70 MM, WITH HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO,
GUATEMALA, AND BELIZE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL 25-50MM OVER MEXICO, AND 20-45MM OVER GUATEMALA. THE
BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FURTHER ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, GUATEMALA, BELIZE, AND NORTHERN HONDURAS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, WHERE THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM 20-40MM.
THE FRONT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION
TODAY. IT WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA, LEADING TO INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING MONDAY. TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-35MM AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STARTING TODAY. AS THE FRONT PROPAGATES ON TUESDAY,
RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY, AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. WHILE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABILITY, EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
HIGH TOTALS FOR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE CARIBBEAN
LOW-LEVEL JET, RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SOME PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, DIURNAL CONVECTION, AND LOCAL
EFFECTS, THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN LOW.
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER. SOME
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH
LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TOTALS AROUND
15-30MM.
OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AMAZON REGION, WHERE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE. FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN AMAZON BASIN, WHERE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ACROSS THE REGION, FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE EASTERN AMAZON AND AMAZON DELTA DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION, LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE, THE PRESENCE OF THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET, AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND. HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
LOCAL EFFECTS.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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