635
FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE
HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF
NORTH AMERICA STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND ALASKA. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER EASTERN CANADA. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST UPSTREAM OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH, CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA,
WITH IMPRESSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF GREATER THAN +210 METERS. THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND,
BUT MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS FORECAST
TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE RIDGING, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREDICTED TO BE
GREATER THAN 90 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII,
LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE PREDICTED
ANOMALOUS STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE LEADS TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
ARIZONA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EVEN HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80
PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND, CLOSE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS,
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (RANGING FROM A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED
ALONG THE CONUS/CANADA BORDER, FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING
EASTERNWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN PREDICTED RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHING
TO THE NORTH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, NEAR A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 30 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN,
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES
OF NORTH AMERICA AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. PROMINENT
HIGH LATITUDE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, ALBEIT WITH
REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND, FAVORING TROUGH PERSISTENCE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST,
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER,
THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE EXPANSIVE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM COAST TO COAST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS HAWAII, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL
LONG-DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
DESPITE THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE WEEK-2 PATTERN, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY,
MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT THAT THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT, RESULTING IN CONTINUED ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AND A COOLING TREND IS
FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, DUE TO PREDICTED PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARMER THAN NORMAL, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IN
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD (INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA, SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA, AND ARIZONA), EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST IN MODEL FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
LIKELY OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND FLORIDA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN OFFSHORE FLOW. A PROLONGED ACTIVE
PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A
GREATER THAN A 40 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION POSTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
PREDICTED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD OFFSET BY A POTENTIAL
PATTERN TRANSITION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20170302 - 20030330 - 20210330 - 20180330
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20170302 - 20030329 - 20210329 - 19890304
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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